Model track record
Backtested — simulated using historical odds and results. Not live picks. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Method. Walk-forward, no lookahead: for each Premier League match the production model (Poisson, each team's
last 10 matches, 5 pseudo-games of shrinkage, at least 3 games per team)
is fitted only on results dated before that match; 2020-21 is warm-up only. A pick is every match-result or
over/under 2.5 selection where model probability minus the price's implied probability is at least 3 points,
the production rule. Level 1-unit stakes, settled from the real full-time score. CLV is against Pinnacle's closing price, or the market-average
close where Pinnacle's is missing. Nothing was tuned on this data.
Data: football-data.co.uk Premier League results and odds (2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26, 2026-27; 2021-08-13 to 2026-09-20, 1,950 matches), plus BetVault's own stored prices.
Caveats: the best price across bookmakers is rarely all available at one bookmaker, and stakes may be limited; the pre-match prices were taken before the weekend's games, not at a known time. Treat the average-price version as the more realistic one.
Download every backtest pick (CSV) · built 2026-10-12 · version 1
Data: football-data.co.uk Premier League results and odds (2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26, 2026-27; 2021-08-13 to 2026-09-20, 1,950 matches), plus BetVault's own stored prices.
Caveats: the best price across bookmakers is rarely all available at one bookmaker, and stakes may be limited; the pre-match prices were taken before the weekend's games, not at a known time. Treat the average-price version as the more realistic one.
Download every backtest pick (CSV) · built 2026-10-12 · version 1
Headline: Best price across bookmakers (headline: same rule as production)
Picks3,5571,163 won
Hit rate32.7%level stakes
ROI-8.2%per 1-unit pick
Units profit-292.811 unit per pick
Average odds4.18decimal
Average CLV+3.6%3,557 with a close
Beat the close62.4%of picks with a close
Max drawdown306.2upeak to trough
Conservative: Market average price (conservative)
Picks3,1151,000 won
Hit rate32.1%level stakes
ROI-13.4%per 1-unit pick
Units profit-417.451 unit per pick
Average odds3.97decimal
Average CLV-1.8%3,115 with a close
Beat the close37.7%of picks with a close
Max drawdown425.4upeak to trough
Cumulative units
Best price across bookmakers (headline: same rule as production): now -292.8u over 3,557 picks
High +2.9uLow -300.1u
Market average price (conservative): now -417.4u over 3,115 picks
High +0.7uLow -422.5u
By season (headline price)
| Season | Picks | Hit rate | Units | ROI | Avg odds | Avg CLV | Beat close | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 708 | 32.2% | -84.73 | -12.0% | 4.34 | +3.9% | 65.1% | 116.5 |
| 2022-23 | 686 | 33.5% | -64.06 | -9.3% | 3.93 | +3.9% | 65.5% | 81.2 |
| 2023-24 | 713 | 31.0% | -108.31 | -15.2% | 4.55 | +3.5% | 61.9% | 115.0 |
| 2024-25 | 698 | 34.5% | +14.93 | +2.1% | 4.26 | +2.5% | 56.0% | 34.3 |
| 2025-26 | 667 | 32.2% | -41.24 | -6.2% | 3.91 | +3.1% | 60.7% | 60.2 |
| 2026-27 | 85 | 32.9% | -9.40 | -11.1% | 3.39 | +12.1% | 87.1% | 20.1 |
By season (average price)
| Season | Picks | Hit rate | Units | ROI | Avg odds | Avg CLV | Beat close | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 616 | 31.5% | -104.38 | -16.9% | 4.14 | -1.7% | 42.9% | 106.0 |
| 2022-23 | 591 | 33.0% | -80.23 | -13.6% | 3.76 | -1.0% | 39.1% | 96.3 |
| 2023-24 | 623 | 29.9% | -133.75 | -21.5% | 4.27 | -2.2% | 36.1% | 139.7 |
| 2024-25 | 627 | 34.8% | -3.55 | -0.6% | 4.06 | -2.5% | 32.4% | 37.1 |
| 2025-26 | 583 | 31.2% | -83.63 | -14.3% | 3.69 | -2.0% | 36.2% | 88.3 |
| 2026-27 | 75 | 33.3% | -11.91 | -15.9% | 3.24 | +1.3% | 53.3% | 19.4 |
By market (headline price)
| Market | Picks | Hit rate | Units | ROI | Avg odds | Avg CLV | Beat close | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | 2097 | 23.9% | -187.89 | -9.0% | 5.60 | +4.6% | 64.1% | 209.2 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 1460 | 45.3% | -104.92 | -7.2% | 2.15 | +2.1% | 60.0% | 108.9 |
By market (average price)
| Market | Picks | Hit rate | Units | ROI | Avg odds | Avg CLV | Beat close | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | 1853 | 23.2% | -285.59 | -15.4% | 5.27 | -1.9% | 39.3% | 297.3 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 1262 | 45.2% | -131.86 | -10.4% | 2.07 | -1.7% | 35.3% | 134.2 |
Every variant tested
| Price used | Picks | Hit rate | Units | ROI | Avg CLV | Beat close | Max DD | CSV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best price across bookmakers (headline: same rule as production) | 3557 | 32.7% | -292.81 | -8.2% | +3.6% | 62.4% | 306.2 | CSV |
| Market average price (conservative) | 3115 | 32.1% | -417.45 | -13.4% | -1.8% | 37.7% | 425.4 | CSV |
| Bet365 price only | 3085 | 32.1% | -419.27 | -13.6% | -2.2% | 37.6% | 427.8 | CSV |
| BetVault's own stored prices (2026-27, last snapshot ≥60 min before kick-off) | 13 | 30.8% | -2.36 | -18.2% | +7.2% | 100.0% | 6.0 | CSV |
BetVault's own stored prices cover only 13 picks so far, far too few to read anything into.
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